Description
Description (EN): The Baltic Sea Region (BSR) includes Poland, Belarus, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Finland, Norway, Sweden and Denmark as well as North-West Russia and Northern Germany. The BSR is the first European macro-region having a vision for spatial development (adopted in 1994, renewed in 2009). The region is a highly heterogeneous area in economic, environmental and cultural terms. The objective of this activity is to develop territorial scenarios for the BSR in order to increase evidence based on the territorial dimension of the EU Strategy for the Baltic Sea Region, as well as contribute to EU MS policy making and cooperation between BSR countries on territorial development. The EU Territorial Agenda (EU TA) and Urban Agenda (EU UA), as well as UN New Urban Agenda need to be considered in this respect. Territorial scenarios are an important tool to show synergies and trade-offs between spatial goals and priorities spelled out in other strategic documents. They can convey the message that territory matters to bodies acting at the macro-regional scale and fertilize as well as influence policy processes in the BSR. Territorial scenarios for the BSR (BT 2050) aimed in the framework of this service contract are aimed at providing a basis for political discussions (for example at the next VASAB ministerial conference), or with other EUSBSR stakeholders and wider Europe.
Read more Achievements (EN): The Baltic Sea Region (BSR) includes Poland, Belarus, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Finland, Norway, Sweden and Denmark as well as North-West Russia and Northern Germany. The BSR is the first European macro-region having a vision for spatial development (adopted in 1994, renewed in 2009).
Over the past few decades, the Baltic Sea Region (BSR) has been growing, both in terms of population and economy. The region has also become more integrated thanks to increased cooperation.
But how will the Baltic Sea Region look like in 2050? The ESPON project “BT2050” has been exploring a variety of territorial development challenges and trends that might shape the further development of the region and published its results today.
Current trends:
While urbanisation and rapidly shrinking rural areas are common trends for the all Baltic Sea countries, some significant differences can be observed. For example, the differences in population density between the northern and southern countries of the BSR (Finland - 17 inhabitants/km2 and Germany - 172 inhabitants/km2) influence the spatial pattern of the region, in which cities in the South of the region are more connected. The study shows that the depopulation of rural areas slowed down in the countries which received international migrants in 2015-2016 (Germany, Sweden, Denmark and Norway).
Forecasting the future of territorial development:
During the project, three scenarios have been developed for the Baltic Sea Region.
A Baseline Scenario offers a perspective about how the Baltic Sea Region will look like in 2050 if trends of the recent past (e.g. steady economic growth, the inflow of immigrants) and current policy practices (e.g. EU political integration) continue to be in effect in the following three decades. In a scenario where the trends are stable, the rural-urban divide will continue to grow. This implies that bigger cities will keep generating economic power and will be able to attract more people while the rural areas will continue to decline.
Two alternative territorial scenarios were also developed for the Baltic Sea Region. The first one called ‘Well-being in a circular economy: a RE-mind of a good life’ and the second one ‘Growing into green-tech giants: the ecological footprint clear-up.’
The scenario ‘Well-being in a circular economy: a RE-mind of a good life’ envisions the Baltic Sea Region as a place with an active citizen involvement in the transition from the existing linear economic model in favour of a circular economy that focuses on a better quality of life. The role of the smaller cities and towns will be more prominent in this scenario which might result in a boost in local production as well as reduced consumerism.
The scenario ‘Growing into green-tech giants: the ecological footprint clear-up’ pictures the Baltic Sea Region as a giant in green technology and innovation. A reduced ecological footprint increased eco-production, and a ‘guilt-free’ consumerism are some of the characteristics of this scenario.
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Website: https://archive.espon.eu/
Expected Results (EN): The objective of this activity is to develop territorial scenarios for the BSR in order to increase evidence based on the territorial dimension of the EU Strategy for the Baltic Sea Region, as well as contribute to EU MS policy making and cooperation between BSR countries on territorial development. The EU Territorial Agenda (EU TA) and Urban Agenda (EU UA), as well as UN New Urban Agenda need to be considered in this respect.The main outcome of the service should be:- Identification of the main processes, external and internal factors, obstacles, drivers (economic, social, spatial, environmental, technological, political etc.) that will shape spatial development and spatial integration of the BSR by 2030 and 2050. Demography, energy issues, digitalization and climate change should be taken into consideration.- Identification of synergies and conflicts between those factors (in particular from the perspective of the key policy processes and the EU Strategy for the Baltic Sea Region).- Translating those findings into long term trends and assessing their territorial impact.- Identification of possible black swan and wild card events that can break existing trends and syndromes of BSR spatial development and spatial integration.- Formulation of territorial development scenarios and spatial integration of the BSR in relation to the scenarios identified in the ESPON European Territorial Scenarios 2050. Assess to what extent and how BT 2050 contributes to the ESPON European Territorial Scenarios 2050.- Assessing the relevance of the existing VASAB vision and long-term perspective on the basis of the aforesaid findings as well as a suggestion of the direction of changes.- A suggestion of possible policy pathways i.e. policy actions requiring joint attention of the BSR ministers on spatial planning and development in order to steer the development of the BSR towards the chosen scenarios developed in the project. In this case soft cooperation actions could also be taken into consideration. Regarding scale, the territorial scenarios should be able to address the regional and urban levels. In addition, as much as possible and if feasible, a functional approach should be considered to be able to go beyond the NUTS administrative divisions. There is a need for a more flexible approach to address the BSR territory and to consider a possible and logic combination of administrative units and territorial typologies.In particular, when looking into the specific territorial aspects in the BSR, territorial specificities such as urban and metropolitan regions, rural regions, sparsely populated areas, as well as cities, agglomerations and functional areas should be included as geographical identities in the framework of this project. With regard to this issue it is important to consider the use of raster-based data sources in order to bridge the gap between the different breakdowns. In addition, the project is expected to make comparisons for relevant indicators to the European average in order to make benchmarking in the European context feasible.
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Thematic information
Specific Objective:
Upgraded knowledge transfer and use of analytical user support
Thematic Objective:
(11) enhancing institutional capacity of public authorities and stakeholders and efficient public administration through actions to strengthen the institutional capacity and the efficiency of public administrations and public services related to the implementation of the ERDF, and in support of actions under the ESF to strengthen the institutional capacity and the efficiency of public administration.
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Investment Priority:
(11 ETC) ETC specific for transnational cooperation: enhancing institutional capacity of public authorities and stakeholders and efficient public administration by developing and coordinating macro-regional and sea-basin strategies
