Development and testing of a shared, AI-based predictive model for a coordinated use of big data and for a joint Monitoring System of landslides risk in the Adriatic-Ionian region

Programme 2021 - 2027 Interreg VI-B IPA Adriatic-Ionian

Date of latest update: 2025-06-23

Description

Description (EN):

AIMS deals with landslide monitoring & prevention with the main objective of developing a tailored methodology for prediction & early forecasting usable in different ADRION areas. The proposal moves from the challenges posed by the high hydrological vulnerability of the Adriatic-Ionian to derive new predictive, AI-based models investigating connections of climate change-related events with augmented landslide hazard, with the idea of providing useful instruments for risk mitigation. To do so, AIMS develops the following outputs: -1 Joint Strategy (O 1.1) for a shared ADRION approach on landslides monitoring & early prediction -1 transnational pilot testing aimed to collect and aggregate data from 6 designated sites of geological interest -1 AI-based landslides monitoring and early prediction System (O 3.1) applicable to different morphological contexts of the macro-region. AIMS activities are developed across a 3-phase approach of (1) Investigation of common challenges & suitable technologies for effective predictive models; (2) Development, testing and fine-tuning of a joint landslide early prediction mechanism for the whole Adriatic-Ionian; (3) Capacity building & knowledge transfer for the uptake of the developed monitoring and early prediction system. To do so, the project approach is rooted in deep transnationality both in terms of ensuring a proper combination of competencies among implementing actors, and for the sake of producing a versatile predictive model on landslide risks applicable to numerous territories in the macro-region. Key target beneficiaries of the developed outputs are in fact public authorities at local/regional/national level, infrastructures developers and urban planners in their territorial management functions. AIMS introduces strong innovation as it devises an AI mechanism for the analysis of big data on landslide forecasting derived from a plurality of disciplines (climatology, geology, geotechnical engineering) for a wider cross-sectoral approach to the topic.

Expected Achievements (EN):

The activities of this WP are aimed at providing a comprehensive and integrated framework to address the common challenges related to landslides monitoring and early prediction in the Adriatic-Ionian region, by developing a Joint Strategy based on the assessment of landslides types and risks categories and the mapping of existing predictive models and AI-based solutions, with the involvement and support of external experts and stakeholders. The activities of this WP are aimed at jointly developing, testing and evaluating customized pilot actions through the implementation of an innovative solution for the monitoring and early prediction of landslides in the Adriatic-Ionian area, able to provided real-time information on potential short-term scenarios for a better management of emergency situations connected to landslides and contribute to the reduction of related risks. Validating, disseminating and fostering the capitalization of the Landslides Monitoring and Early Prediction System, ensuring its uptake by relevant stakeholders and policy makers, fostering cooperation, innovation and knowledge transfer within the ADRION region and beyond through transnational conferences, clustering and capacity building activities.

Project outputs: AIMS Joint Strategy (EN)
AIMS Cooperation Agreement (EN)
Pilot testing of the Landslides Monitoring and Early Prediction System(EN)
Landslides Monitoring and Early Prediction System(EN)

Thematic information

Scientific cooperation Managing natural and man-made threats, risk management ICT and digital society

Priority: (VI-B_IPA-A_2) Supporting a greener and climate resilient Adriatic-Ionian region

Priority specific objective: RSO2.4. Promoting climate change adaptation and disaster risk prevention and resilience, taking into account eco-system based approaches

Priority policy objective (Interreg specific objective): PO2 A greener, low-carbon transitioning towards a net zero carbon economy and resilient Europe by promoting clean and fair energy transition, green and blue investment, the circular economy, climate change mitigation and adaptation, risk prevention and management, and sustainable urban mobility

Type of intervention: 058 Adaptation to climate change measures and prevention and management of climate related risks: floods and landslides (including awareness raising, civil protection and disaster management systems, infrastructures and ecosystem based approaches)

Partners (8)

Lead Partner: Università Politecnica delle Marche

PIC (Participant Identification Code): 999866689

Partner’s ID if not PIC: 00382520427

Department: Department of Materials, Environmental Sciences and Urban Planning

Address: Piazza Roma, 60121 Ancona, Italy

Department address: Via Brecce Bianche, 60121 Ancona, Italy

Legal status: public

Organisation type: Higher education and research organisations

Website: http://WWW.UNIVPM.IT

Total budget: EUR 163 619.80

Partner’s programme co-financing: EUR 139 076.83

Partner’s programme co-financing rate: 85.00%

Partner contribution: EUR 24 542.97

Regionalna agencija za razvoj istočne Srbije

Name: Regionalna agencija za razvoj istočne Srbije

PIC (Participant Identification Code): 933647020

Partner’s ID if not PIC: 105019649

Address: Trg oslobodjenja, 19000 Zaječar, Serbia

Legal status: public

Organisation type: Sectoral agency

Website: http://www.raris.org

Total budget: EUR 74 499.13

Partner’s programme co-financing: EUR 63 324.26

Partner’s programme co-financing rate: 85.00%

Partner contribution: EUR 11 174.87

Romagna Tech

Name: Romagna Tech

PIC (Participant Identification Code): 941512459

Partner’s ID if not PIC: 02327720401

Address: Corso Giuseppe Garibaldi, 47121 Forlì, Italy

Legal status: public

Organisation type: Business support organisation

Website: http://www.romagnatech.eu

Total budget: EUR 152 449.23

Partner’s programme co-financing: EUR 129 581.84

Partner’s programme co-financing rate: 85.00%

Partner contribution: EUR 22 867.39

Contractors:

Name: Nicola Montevecchi
VAT registration or tax identification number: 02685820405

Πανεπιστήμιο Πατρών

Name: Πανεπιστήμιο Πατρών

Department: Physics Department/Division of Applied Physics/Laboratory of Atmospheric Physics

PIC (Participant Identification Code): 999894528

Partner’s ID if not PIC: EL998219694

Address: UNIVERSITY CAMPUS, RIO, 26504 Patras, Greece

Department address: UNIVERSITY CAMPUS, RIO, 26504 Patras, Greece

Legal status: public

Organisation type: Higher education and research organisations

Website: https://www.upatras.gr/en/

Total budget: EUR 131 200.01

Partner’s programme co-financing: EUR 111 520.00

Partner’s programme co-financing rate: 85.00%

Partner contribution: EUR 19 680.01

Hrvatski geološki institut

Name: Hrvatski geološki institut

PIC (Participant Identification Code): 972614345

Partner’s ID if not PIC: HR43733878539

Address: Sachsova, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia

Legal status: public

Organisation type: Higher education and research organisations

Website: http://www.hgi-cgs.hr

Total budget: EUR 117 262.30

Partner’s programme co-financing: EUR 99 672.95

Partner’s programme co-financing rate: 85.00%

Partner contribution: EUR 17 589.35

Resursni centar za okoliš

Name: Resursni centar za okoliš

PIC (Participant Identification Code): 896903226

Partner’s ID if not PIC: 4202689720001

Address: Pehlivanuša, 71000 Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina

Legal status: private

Organisation type: Interest groups including NGOs

Website: http://www.rec.org.ba

Total budget: EUR 112 314.62

Partner’s programme co-financing: EUR 95 467.42

Partner’s programme co-financing rate: 85.00%

Partner contribution: EUR 16 847.20

SHERBIMI GJEOLOGJIK SHQIPTAR

Name: SHERBIMI GJEOLOGJIK SHQIPTAR

PIC (Participant Identification Code): 951811337

Partner’s ID if not PIC: J61826126J

Address: RRUGA ZEF SEREMBE, 1001 Tirane, Albania

Legal status: public

Organisation type: Higher education and research organisations

Website: http://www.gsa.gov.al

Total budget: EUR 108 110.21

Partner’s programme co-financing: EUR 91 893.67

Partner’s programme co-financing rate: 85.00%

Partner contribution: EUR 16 216.54

Geološki zavod Slovenije

Name: Geološki zavod Slovenije

Department: Regional Geology

PIC (Participant Identification Code): 999466370

Partner’s ID if not PIC: SI23064145

Address: Dimičeva ulica , 1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia

Department address: Dimičeva ulica , 1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia

Legal status: public

Organisation type: Higher education and research organisations

Website: http://www.geo-zs.si

Total budget: EUR 127 279.70

Partner’s programme co-financing: EUR 108 187.74

Partner’s programme co-financing rate: 85.00%

Partner contribution: EUR 19 091.96

Partners map

Lead partner

Project partner

Summary

Project name (EN): Development and testing of a shared, AI-based predictive model for a coordinated use of big data and for a joint Monitoring System of landslides risk in the Adriatic-Ionian region

Project acronym: AIMS

Project ID: IPA-ADRION00414

Project start date: 2024-06-01

Project end date: 2027-02-28

Project status: ongoing

Relevant linked projects:

safEarth: Improving risk prevention from landslides and flash floods
(Interreg IPA CBC Programme Croatia - Bosnia and Herzegovina - Montenegro)
(EN) | The safEarth project has addressed the common challenge of landslides and flash floods in Croatia, BiH and Montenegro by means of geological mapping for the enhancement of prevention & emergency systems.
The project is particularly relevant for AIMS in terms of:
- geographical investigation area;
- data aggregation from different geological and climatological settings, resulting in different types of landslides. This element is highly functional for the rationale of the current proposal.
Knowledge sharing between the 3 involved states represents a starting point for joint operational criteria to be adopted also within AIMS at a wider macro-regional level.
The incorporation of safEarth findings will be operated in the preliminary project phases by the Croatian Geological Survey (PP5), which was the Coordinator of safEarth; in particular, the online landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM) system developed by the project - which allows potential or occurring disasters to be mapped in real time - will be analysed in T1.2 Joint transnational investigation on existing predictive models and landslides monitoring and early prediction systems.
(EN), RESPONSa: Response to landslide and flash floods risk with early warning system design
(Interreg IPA CBC Programme Croatia - Bosnia and Herzegovina - Montenegro)
(EN) | The RESPONSa project is a follow up initiative of the previous project safEarth. Led by the Croatian Geological Survey (PP5), the action is focused on developing an Early Warning System (EWS) for risk prevention management capable of generating and disseminating timely warning information to launch emergency plans and reduce risks related to geological events. The project therefore presents numerous points of contact with the current proposal, which is however wider in terms of targeted territories, addressed variables and magnitude of data collection & analysis. Since RESPONSa was completed in March 2023, its results will be ready for sharing with AIMS consortium during the key phases of WP1 and WP2 for capitalisation in identifying the most viable tools and technologies for the setup of a cross-cutting predictive model addressed to the different areas tackled by AIMS. (EN), AD-VITAM: analysis of the vulnerability of Alpine Mediterranean areas to natural ground movement risks (Interreg ALCOTRA) (EN) | The AD-VITAM project aimed at improving the resilience of targeted local areas to natural ground movement risks by developing innovative operational systems based on rainfall data. To assess the links between rainfall and landslides, the project has produced an inventory of ground movement events in the ALCOTRA area, developing different predictive models, defining the thresholds at which landslides occur and producing dynamic maps of vulnerable areas. Building on a similar background and scope of investigation, connections and capitalisation patterns will be established with AD-VITAM in order to:
- incorporate its findings about the linkages between meteorological events and landslides, delving into the framework of extreme meteorological phenomena linked to climate change as one of the main areas of interest for AIMS;
- establish synergies in terms or gathering and interpretation of existing research data;
- expand AIMS geographical reach and relevance by communicating with neighbouring and overlapping EU regions for the ADRION area.
Lastly, the investigation conducted in AIMS about predictive models may integrate, update and extend the findings of AD-VITAM, which was completed back at the end of 2020.
(EN), HYBLAND: Development of a hybrid methodology for the susceptibility and hazard analysis of landslides (H2020) (EN) | The HYBLAND project is developing an innovative method for landslide susceptibility and hazard assessment by focussing on South-Western Cyprus as a test bed area.
Combining Earth observation technology with classical geotechnical research to investigate the failure mechanisms of landslides and their spatiotemporal spread, HYBLAND is working on an effective multi-modal deterministic method based on machine learning.
With a foreseen end on April 2024, this project represents a valuable cluster opportunity for the proposal in terms of mutual knowledge transfer, data comparison, big data management and processing, benchmarking and cross-fertilisation chances; contacts will be main with HYBLAND research groups to discuss the most effective, cutting edge tools & methods to develop predictive models for more efficient risk management plans targeting geological hazard.
(EN), STRENCH: STRENgthening resilience of Cultural Heritage at risk in a changing environment
through proactive transnational cooperation (Interreg Central Europe)
(EN) | The STRENCH project has focused on improving the capacities of the public and private sectors to mitigate the impacts of climate change and natural hazards on cultural heritage sites, structures and buildings at risk. It was specifically tailored and robustly implemented in order to propose ready-to-use solutions for assessing climate change effects in order to define strategies for the protection of cultural heritage at risk, all while assisting local stakeholders in improving their know-how on the process of definition of priorities of intervention and strategies.
Building on the common focus on climate change-derived hazards, the current proposal aims to partly incorporate STRENCH’s findings to introduce the element of infrastructure safeguard into the early predictive monitoring system to be developed in WP2-WP3; in particular, two main outputs developed by STRENCH (Hazards maps of extreme events for decision making in disaster risk reduction, and the Methodology for vulnerability assessment of cultural heritage at risk) will be consulted by the AIMS working groups to address possible patterns for prevention measures targeted at human infrastructure preservation in the framework of climate change hazards and their geological correlations.
(EN)

Total budget/expenditure: EUR 986 735.00

Total EU funding (amount): EUR 838 724.71

Total EU funding (co-financing rate): 85.00%

Co-financing sources:

Investments, deliverables, policy contributions

(bullets are inserted automatically and may be incorrectly placed)

Deliverables:

Assessment Guidelines for data collection and standardisation
Transnational Inventory and assessment of standardised data on landslides types and risk categories
Catalogue of the innovative solutions
Knowledge-building Hub report
AIMS Roadmap
Memorandum of Understanding
Steering Committee proceedings
Project Management Manual
Internal Periodical Report Template
Risk Management Plan
Transnational Communication Strategy
Stakeholders Repository
Transnational roundtables report
Landslides Monitoring and Early Prediction System requirements and specifications guidelines
Pilot Testing Plans
AIMS Data Management Platform Manual
AIMS Data Management Platform
Pilot Testing Assessment Report
Transnational panel proceedings
Evaluation Report
Periodical Quality Monitoring Report
Midterm Review Template
Pilot Testing Dissemination Package
Transnational Video Pill
Replication package
Landslides Monitoring and Early Prediction System
Local Capacity Building Package
Participants feedback report
Joint Clustering Activities Report
High-Level Conference Package
Formal Letter of Commitment
Declaration of Interest
Final Evaluation Report
Final Project Report
Dissemination and capitalization package
Articles in specialized magazines

Contribution to wider strategies and policies:

EUStrategyAdriaticIonianRegion The proposal contributes to the implementation of the EUSAIR Strategy and Action Plan in its principle of enhancing security within the macro-region. By developing an early predictive system for landslides risk usable and adaptable in different contexts of the EUSAIR targeted territory, AIMS indeed contributes to improving safety and security in the whole region by limiting the damage caused by geological events, particularly in correlation with climate change and extreme meteorological events as direct consequences of it.
Besides, the proposal directly targets the pillar n.3 of the EUSAIR strategy focused on Environmental Quality applied to transnational terrestrial habitats (Topic 2) as pivotal for societal wellbeing and for the preservation of biodiversity.
In this sense, the development and operation of an early predictive system as conceived by AIMS provides public authorities with the possibility of limiting the damage caused by landslides not only on human infrastructure, but also in terms of detrimental impact to the natural environment (loss of biodiversity, degradation of ecosystems, soil erosion and withering). Ultimately, AIMS commits to an improved territorial management against geological hazard
in the whole macro-region in full compliance with the environmental safeguard principles set out by the EUSAIR strategy.
EuropeanGreenDeal The project proposal contributes to the objectives set out by the Eu Green Deal in the field of environmental protection and biodiversity preservation.
In particular, AIMS contributes to the key principle that healthy soils are essential for achieving climate neutrality, for halting desertification and land degradation. In the meanwhile, healthy soils are also essential to reverse biodiversity loss, provide healthy food and safeguard human health.
The ultimate AIMS goal to predict and reduce the negative effects of landslides is in line with this vision and operates by developing early predictive models able to improve policies in mutually influencing areas like land use, urbanisation, territorial planning and development.
AIMS also operates to provide concrete, reliable data for the design of climate change adaptation measures as promoted by the EU Green Deal and for the 2050 vision of a climate resilient Europe.
The project aims at implementing engineering solutions to minimize the effects of climate change on the stability of the territories where human activities are implemented. By reducing the land loss due to landslides by means of environmental respectful solutions agrees with the principles of “climate change adaptation” and “protection and restoration of biodiversity and ecosystems”, both fundamental objectives for DNSH. Engineering solutions are to be sought between those able to manage the effects of climate changes without opposing the changing trends of the nature but adapting solutions to the increasing demand for durability and protection of existing infrastructures. Principles for NBS may be followed to protect the land surface by implementing efficient drainage systems to minimize the impact of concentrated water flows consequence of intense and concentrated rains. Nevertheless even structural solutions may become compatible with NBS if designers consider ductility and acceptable level of damage as for seismic engineering design.
Other The new EU Strategy on Adaptation to Climate
Change
The new EU Strategy on Adaptation to Climate Change stresses the urgency of understanding the interdependencies between different manifestations of climate change,ecosystems, and the services they deliver. Building on the irreversibility of many existing climate change processes, the Strategy calls for robust investigations and science-based solutions aimed to minimise environmental risks and improve resilience, in order to plan climate adaptation measures that can be effective at many levels.
The proposal aims to contribute to fill in current information gaps in the evaluation of climate-related risk and losses to improve the accuracy of climate risk assessment in the specific field of geological events; besides, it strives to contribute to the higher ambition on climate resilience called upon by the EU Adaptation Strategy for the attainment of a climate resilient EU society in 2050.

Programme Common Output Indicator:

RCO 084 - Pilot actions developed jointly and implemented in projects, Measurement unit:
RCO 116 - Jointly developed solutions, Measurement unit:
RCO 083 - Strategies and action plans jointly developed, Measurement unit:
RCO 087 - Organisations cooperating across borders, Measurement unit:

Programme Common Result Indicator:

RCR 084 - Organisations cooperating across borders after project completion, Measurement unit:
RCR 104 - Solutions taken up or up-scaled by organisations, Measurement unit:
RCR 079 - Joint strategies and action plans taken up by organisations, Measurement unit:

Project part of European Union Macro-Regional or Sea Basin Strategy: EUSAIR

EUSAIR Priority (Policy) area / Horizontal action:

EUSAIR Degree of compliance:

Information regarding the data in keep.eu on the programme financing this project

Financing programme

2021 - 2027 Interreg VI-B IPA Adriatic-Ionian

Last month that data in keep.eu was retrieved from the Programme's website or received from the Programme

2025-06-23

No. of projects in keep.eu / Total no. of projects (% of projects in keep.eu)

70 / 70 (100%)

No. of project partnerships in keep.eu / Total no. of project partnerships (% of project partnerships in keep.eu)

638 / 638 (100%)

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Development and testing of a shared, AI-based predictive model for a coordinated use of big data and for a joint Monitoring System of landslides risk in the Adriatic-Ionian region

Description

Thematic information

Partners (8)

Partners map

Summary

Investments, deliverables, policy contributions

Information regarding the data in keep.eu on the programme financing this project

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